2009 MLB Preview - NL Central

Today is Opening Day, and here is the National League Central preview.
Dont forget to check out the NL West preview of you have not seen it already.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs
2008 Record: 97-64, 1st place NL Central
2008 Payroll: $73.6 million (19th highest)

Last Season: The Cubs spent started the 2008 season with newly acquired Japanese sensation Kosuke Fukudome, whom they gave a 4-year, $48 million dollar deal to. It would also be Lou Pinella's first full season with the team. The Cubs blazed through what would be their winningest season in 50 years. Carlos Zambrano threw a no-hitter, the team scored the second most runs in the league, and the Cubbies would win 97 games in impressive fashion. Come playoff time, the Cubs would fall way short of the enormous expectations of the city of Chicago. Fukudome faded in the second half year and was an expensive non-factor in the playoffs. They were swept out of the first round for the second consecutive year, ensuring that the Cubs would go 100 straight years without winning a championship - and tortured Cubs fans would yet again have to look to next season.

Key Moves:

• Cubs land another bat and sign Milton Bradley to 3-year, $30 million deal. Injury prone and kind of a head case (like last year when he went ballistic on Royals reporter Ryan Lefebvre), Bradley is always a gamble. But when motivated and healthy, he can change games and make a big impact. Hopes are that Lou Piniella will be able to keep him in the right frame of mind.
• Traded Mark DeRosa to Cleveland - his versatility was a key part of the Cubs success last season and he will be missed .
• Kerry Wood also leaves in free agency. He has been through a lot with the organization and finally started looking like his old self again as a reliever. Its been a long road to recovery for him and he should do well in Cleveland.
  

Training Camp:

• Bullpen: Carlos Marmol will be setup man and Kevin Gregg has won the closer position. The two should combine for a lot of shutdown innings.
• No. 5 starter: Sean Marshall beat out Aaron Heilman.
• No one has established themselves as the go-to person for long-relief yet.
• Milton Bradley is tearing it up this spring, batting .500 in 16 games

Keys to Success: Kosuke Fukudome has to play better, Piniella has slated him to be no. 2 in the lineup and he is expected to produce. Same goes for Alfonso Soriano, he is very productive, but strikes out too often for a leadoff hitter and is obviously much more dangerous on base than on the bench. If Zambrano can avoid some of his inconsistency last season he could contend for a Cy Young. Someone needs to step up in middle relief.

Projections: The Cubbies have all the pieces to make a deep postseason run. They have one of the top rotations in the National League and could chase 100 wins this year. They will win the NL Central, but everyone, including Lou Piniella have learned more about themselves as a team and should at least make it out of the first round.

Cincinnati Reds

2008 Record: 74-88, 5th place NL Central
2008 Payroll: $74.3 million (18th highest)

Last Season: Last year the Reds had a good starting rotation, at least on paper. Unfortunately, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto all underachieved on the year. Their bullpen also struggled all season. They could only put up 74 wins, but they some of their young guys made big impressions. Edinson Volquez dominated all season long and led the NL in ERA for a good portion of the season, which is not easy to do in the Reds' bandbox stadium. RF Jay Bruce burst onto the scene when he was called up mid-season and 1B Joey Votto also potential to do great things. With the Reds struggling, they traded Adam Dunn, who had been with squad for 8 years, to the Diamondbacks.

Key Moves:

• Signed OF Willy Taveras to 2-year deal - Taveras has speed and can steal a ton of bases, but concerns still linger about his low OBP.
• Traded for C Ramon Hernandez - The Reds searched the whole offseason for a catcher signing two to minor league contracts and settling on Hernandez as starter. He dealt with injuries last year and did not perform well, but could contribute this season.
  

Training Camp:

• The whole starting rotation has played quite well this spring, especially Edinson Volquez, Micah Owings (acquired as part of Dunn trade), and Johnny Cueto. They all have sub 1.57 ERA for Spring Training.
  
• Bad news on SP Bronson Arroyo, he was diagnosed with Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in his throwing hand. Though he says its something he has dealt with for years, this is not a problem that will go away anytime soon and it might be another rough season for him. He's been getting shelled this spring.
  
• Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are batting over .300 this spring.
• SS Alex Gonzalez, who missed all of last year with a knee injury, is still rehabbing and then pulled a hamstring and will miss the start of the season.
• Rumor is that the Reds may sign Gary Sheffield, who was just released from the Tigers. He might have to be a bench guy and spell Votto at 1B though. They are also rumored to be pursuing Jeff Jenkins.
  

Keys to Success: Their pitching is going to have to be really strong, which they should be. The offensive end is where players are going to need to step up. Beyond Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, there is not really anyone that will scare opposing pitchers, even in Cincy's tiny ballpark. Willy Taveras will need to be strong in the leadoff and wreak havoc on the base paths and the Votto and Bruce are going to have to carry the load. If the pitchers dominate, it will make up for their lack of offense.

Projections: The Reds have been a trendy selection to do some damage this season. That starting rotation is solid, but their bullpen remains a question mark and they have no one to replace Adam Dunn's production. They improve on last season's record, but its not enough to contend with the big dogs in the division. They win 80 games and finish 4th.


Milwaukee Brewers
2008 Record: 90-72 (2nd place NL Central)
2008 Payroll: $81.0 million (15th highest)

Last Season: In 2008, The Brewers built on the success of their first winning season in 15 years. Ben Sheets actually stayed healthy all season and their young stars SS JJ Hardy, LF Ryan Braun, and 1B Prince Fielder all had very good seasons. In mid-season, Milwaukee traded for CC Sabathia, and the team took off. However, the Brewers slumped badly towards the end of the season and with only 12 games left, manager Ned Yost was fired. It was the first time in Major League history that a team fired its manager in August with the team in playoff position. The Brewers responded by winning 7 of the last 12 games and earned a trip to the first postseason appearance in franchise history. However, come playoff time, the pitching imploded and Sabathia's great season went to waste as he got shelled by the Phillies, who would ended up beating the Brew Crew in four games.

Key Moves:

• Let CC Sabathia go in free agency - There was no way Milwaukee could compete with the outrageous 7-year, $160 million contract offered him by the Yankees. As illustrated in this great article from the Bernie's Crew Blog, he will be sorely missed. He was responsible for +4.7 wins, the difference between going playoffs and sitting at home.
• Did not resign SP Ben Sheets - Sheets has not been signed by any team due to concerns about his durability. Since he had no offers, he opted to have elbow surgery and will be ready to pitch mid-season, hoping that a team desperate for help will pony up the money. Regardless, his days as a Brewer are over.
• Signed starting pitcher Braden Looper to 1-year deal to fill holes left by Sheets and Sabathia
• Signed 42-year old all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman to 1-year deal in hopes that he can provide consistency that they have lacked at that spot.
  

Training Camp: The team has dealt with a lot of injuries early on.

• SS JJ Hardy is on fire this spring, batting .422. He looks primed for a big year.
• 3B Craig Counsell, RF Corey Hart, and 2B Rickie Weeks are all batting above .329. However, Counsell has a torn meniscus that he has played on but is likely to require surgery. Bill Hall will start the season at 3B. Also, Corey Hart is flashing a lot of power, with 7 HRs in 23 spring training games.
  
• Ryan Braun has dealt with injury issues all of preseason, but will start on opening day.
  

Keys to Success: Its kind of obvious, but their starting pitching is not nearly as good as last year. The team can mash, but their success relies entirely on what they get from their starters. Trevor Hoffman will need to stay healthy and close out games.

Projections: This team has dealt with adversity in the last two years and are better off for it. The loss of Sheets and Sabathia leaves a big void, and opening day starter Jeff Suppan declined at the end of last season. Their offense will win games for them but they won't match last years 90 wins and come closer to 85, good enough for 3rd in the division.


Houston Astros
2008 Record: 86-75 (3rd place NL Central)
2008 Salary: $88.9 million (14th highest)

Last Season: The Astros - led by stellar pitching by Roy Oswalt and a strong contributions from Carlos Lee (who hit 100 RBI and 28 HR even though he missed the last month of the season) and Lance Berkman - performed admirably in a tough NL Central in 2008. However, their lack of a deep rotation behind Oswalt, the injury to Lee, and Miguel Tejada tanking in the second half would not keep them in contention. Unfortunately, the only major news made besides Lance Berkman's red hot start to the season was when pitchers Shawn Chacon choked GM Ed Wade because he basically told him he was not pitching well. Classy. They won a respectable 86 games despite having a negative run differential but would not make the playoffs.

Key Moves:

• Signed SP Mike Hampton to a 1-year deal to try to bolster the rotation
• Signed C Ivan Rodriguez to make up for the departure of C Brad Ausmus, who signed with the Dodgers
• 3B Ty Wiggington, IF Mark Loretta, and SP Randy Wolf all leave in free agency

Training Camp:

• 3B Aaron Boone had to get heart surgery, and may miss the rest of the season.
• Battle for 3B - Geoff Blum and newly acquired Jeff Keppinger will start the season sharing time. Blum will likely get more of the starts but Keppinger is younger and has more upside, so he could win the job at some point.
• Starting Rotation - Wandy Rodriguez is having a solid spring and will be the No. 2 starter behind Oswalt. He has a lot of potential. Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton, and Russ Ortiz fill out the rest of the rotation, they are all serviceable starters but Hampton and Ortiz are injury-prone.
  

Keys to Success: The back end of the rotation is going to have to hold up and everyone not named Carlos Lee or Lance Berkman needs to step it up on offense. The bullpen will be solid, anchored by Jose Valverde (closer), Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary, and LaTroy Hawkins. So as long as the starting guys can hand off leads to the relief pitchers, the Astros can win games. Tejada needs to have a bounce back year.

Projections: The Astros always seem to perform better than anyone projects them to be. But this year their big hitters are another year older and the rotation is very suspect. They could win 80 games or so, but they finish 5th in a very competitive division.


St. Louis Cardinals
2008 Record: 86-76 (4th NL Central)
2008 Payroll: $100.6 million (11th highest)

Last Season: Manager Tony LaRussa earned every bit if his paycheck last season. He deserved to win manager of the year for leading the injury-ravaged Cardinals to 86 wins. Their starting rotation was a shell of what it had been - no Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, or Adam Wainwright for the majority of the season. Albert Pujols played the entire season with a high-grade tear in an elbow ligament and still won National League MVP. He can basically be credited as the player who kept Cardinals a respectable squad - without Pujols, they finish last. No one ever rose to claim the spot at closer, and the Cardinals would lead the MLB in blown saves. Credit the Cards for what they accomplished despite their many shortcomings.

Key Moves: It was a fairly quiet offseason for the Cardinals.

• Traded for SS Khalil Greene for a prospect - a fresh start should benefit the talented shortstop, and could be a huge boost to the lineup if he plays to his potential.
• SS Cesar Izturis was let go in free agency
• Mark Mulder, who had a lot of good years with the Cardinals, remains unsigned. He is done as a member of the Cardinals and many think he will never pitch effectively again due to his numerous shoulder issues.

Training Camp:

• 3B Troy Glaus, who had surgery on his shoulder in January, has not rehabbed as quickly as hoped and likely won't be back before the All-Star break. This has left open competition for his position until he returns. David Freese has batted .386 this spring and has won the starting job
• SS Khalil Greene has been the Cardinals best spring hitter, averaging .408.
• Battle for closer - Rookie Jason Motte has outright won the closing job, boasting a strong 1.52 ERA.
• Battle for 2B - Skip Schumaker will fill the void left by the departure of Adam Kennedy, Felipe Lopez, and Aaron Miles
• Chris Carpenter didn't allow a run in his first 19 innings of spring training, and looks to be back to his old form (very good news for Cardinals fans)
• No. 5 starter Joel Piniero is also having an excellent spring, with an impressive 1.44 ERA in 25 innings.
  

Keys to Success: Chris Carpenter needs to return to health and Albert Pujols' bad elbow needs to hold up. If Jason Motte solidifies himself as the closer that would be huge, as we previously mentioned the Cardinals league-high 31 blown saves.

Projections: Tony LaRussa knows how to get the best out of his players. Even though he is using a lot more young players than he is used to, the team should be fine. The return of ace Chris Carpenter is huge, and this team is a lot better than the team that won 86 games last year. Cardinals win 90 games and finish 2nd in the NL Central.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2008 Record: 67-95 (6th NL Central)
2008 Payroll: $49.3 million (27th highest)

Last Season: The Pirates started the season with a new President, GM, and manager, but it was another year of dissapointment for the franchise. Their 95 losses meant that the team has gone 16 consecutive seasons without a winning record, tying the Philadelphia Phillies for the most in professional sports history. No pitcher won more than 10 games and in mid-season the team shipped off two of its best players, Xavier Nady and Jason Bay, for prospects and draft picks. A highlight was the emergence of Nate McLouth, who showed that he can be a star in the league. Pirates fans hope that one day their grandchildren will be able to see a winning product.

Key Moves: Their biggest moves were made during the regular season, and were very quiet for a team that performed poorly.

• Signed former Rookie of the Year OF Eric Hinske to 1-year, $1.5 million - he was serviceable on the Tampa Bay team that made it to the World Series, hitting 20 HR, but only batting .247. He will definitely get the opportunity to play consistently in Pittsburgh
• Sign 3B Ramon Vazquez for 2-year, $4 million - Vazquez did hit .290 and will spell Andy LaRoche while providing veteran leadership off the bench.

Training Camp:

• Starting rotation - With LHP Paul Maholm as the only clear-cut starter, he will get the No.1 and the rest has been up for competition.
  
• Ross Ohlendorf has only allowed 3 runs in 20 innings this spring, and will be the No. 4 starter
• Ian Snell and Zach Duke have had decent springs, and will be No. 2 and No. 3
• Bullpen - Matt Capps will be the closer, but has not been particularly strong this spring. John Grabow will be setup and pitched solidly for Team USA in the WBC and did well in his short time in spring training
• 3B Andy LaRoche has impressed this spring, batting .340 over 50 at-bats
  

Keys to Success: The Pirates need a lot of things to happen. Their young starting pitching staff will need to step up their game and someone besides Nate McLouth is going to have to step up their game. Freddy Sanchez needs to get back to the form he had when he won a batting title a few years ago. Success for the Pirates would be a winning season.

Projections: The Pirates are a young team and while they have had moments of promise, they will struggle again. They can't compete with any of the teams in their division and will lose more games than they win. I hate to say it, but this franchise is destined for history - by having their 17th consecutive losing season and a last place finish in the division. At least the Steelers won the Super Bowl, right Pittsburgh?