2009 MLB Preview - NL West

Oh boy! You know your all so fucking excited about the best Major League preview of all time! I know I am excited to be presenting it to you because this has turned out to be much more of an undertaking than I had anticipated. I will be rolling out the previews division by division because there is a lot of information. We will start off with the National League West. The National League East preview, written by Santo Scrimenti, will be out tomorrow. Consider yourselves informed, and most importantly, Enjoy!

National League West

San Diego Padres
2008 Record: 63-99, 5th place NL West
2008 Payroll: $73.6 million (19th highest)

Last Season: The Padres started the 2008 season trying to put away the memories of a crushing defeat to the Rockies in a playoff for the NL Wild Card in 2007. The team figured to at least be a contender in a weak NL West Division but they turned out to be anything but. The lone bright spot of the season was the play of 1B Adrian Gonzalez, who hit 36 homers, drove in 119 runs, and won a Gold Glove - an impressive feat in one of the leagues worst offenses. Their starting pitching and bullpen, which in previous years had been among the league's best, looked like shadows of themselves. This in turn exposed their weak offense, and the Padres would finish the season with the third worst record in the MLB.

Key Moves: This has been one of the most tumultuous offseasons in Padres history. The team's rapid collapse from playoff contender to bottom-dweller over the span of one season caused owner John Moores to slash payroll and the words "rebuilding" started to be mentioned.

• All-time saves leader and face of the franchise Trevor Hoffman was not resigned after 16 years with the team. He has since signed with the Brewers.
  

• Talented SS Khalil Greene, having the worst season of his career, pulled a Kevin Brown and broke his hand punching a storage container after his 100th strikeout. He was then shipped off for a prospect that just had to get Tommy John's and will miss the 2009 season.
  
• Rumors of trading ace and Cy Young winner Jake Peavy made national headlines and continued through a majority of the offseason. Ultimately a deal was unable to be reached with a team and he will be the starter on Opening Day, but could still be moved at some point this season.
  
• Moores' divorce from his wife became well publicized and the couple decided to put the team up for sale. They completed a deal with an investment group led by former agent and Diamondbacks CEO Jeff Moorad to eventually take over majority stake in the franchise over the span of three seasons. CEO Sandy Alderson has since stepped down and Moorad has taken over the position.
• Due to their drastically reduced payroll, GM Kevin Towers has had to scrape the bottom of the barrel to fill a lot of holes. Additions include veteran 2B David Eckstein, RHP Shaun Hill (a castoff from the Nationals, gross). They also resigned perennially-injured Mark Prior to a minor-league deal.
  

Training Camp: It is a free-for-all in the bullpen, Cla Meredith and Heath Bell will be set-up and closer.

• The 4th and 5th starting positions are up for grabs, with Kevin Correia in the lead for the 4th position and no clear-cut leader for the 5th. That spot will likely be a carousel of minor-leaguers for the season. Shaun Hill would get that spot if he stays healthy.
• Battle for OF - Chase Headley, Jody Gerut, and Brian Giles figure to be opening day starters, Scott Hairston and Will Venable look to be the primary backups.
• Battle for SS - Luis Gonzalez, who filled in well for Khalil Greene last year, looks to be the starter. Rule 5 pickup Everth Cabrera, whole stole 73 bases last year in the minors, will be backup.
• 1B Kyle Blanks has made a huge impression during spring training, showing elite power. The problem is they already have All-Star Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres top prospect will start the season in Triple A while the team tries to find him a spot on the roster. He has said he would be open to playing the outfield and the Padres are going to start having him take fly balls in the minors.

Keys to Success: They would need a lot of young, unproven players to step up in a big way in order to compete with the NL West. Their offense could surprise this season and should see and uptick in production. It is all about the pitching staff this year, and Jake Peavy and Chris Young are the only legit starters. They will need to dominate. GM Kevin Towers will really be put to the test to try to assemble another solid bullpen that he has been able to do in so many years past. Its a scary thought, but this is a year in which the offense is going to have to carry the team to win a lot of games.

Projections: Their lack of decent options at the 3, 4, and 5 pitching spots are going to lose a lot of games. At best, the Padres are a .500 team and win 80 games. Their pitching will be their demise, as their rotations can not hold up to any of the teams in the division. This is a season of transition as new ownership will begin to establish their vision for the future of the franchise. They finish last in the NL West.


Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 Record: 84-78, 1st place NL West
2008 Payroll: $118.5 million (8th highest)

Last Season: During the first two-thirds of the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers couldn't seem to catch a break. Injuries to key players left the team struggling. Nomar Garciaparra and Rafael Furcal missed the majority of the season, Jason Schmidt didn't play a game after having to get shoulder surgery, and Andruw Jones redefined incompetence, making Dodger GM Ned Colletti look like a complete fool. With the Dodgers hanging at .500, Colletti redeemed himself and pulled the biggest transaction of the 2008 season, trading to get Manny Ramirez from the Boston Red Sox. Manny came to LA and had one of the most productive two months in recent memory, batting .396 with 17 homers and 53 RBI's in 53 games. The Dodgers would go 30-23 over that span and play their way to the NL West pennant. With the team rolling, they swept the Cubs but lost in five games to the Phillies in the NLCS.

Key Moves: The Manny-saga dominated headlines, but LA also had some important changes.

• The Dodgers do the smart thing and resign Manny Ramirez, but not after Scott Boras plays every card in the book during contract negotiations and making them into a complete spectacle. Manny also does the smart thing, signing a 2-year, $45 million dollar contract.
• Signed 2B Orlando Hudson, who is injury-prone, but if he stays healthy will make for a really nice pickup.
  
• Derek Lowe and Brad Penny, the 1 and 2 pitchers for 2008, leave in free agency. Relief pitcher Joe Beimel, who pitched well, also left to sign elsewhere.
  
• To make up for the losses of two starting pitchers, they sign pitchers Randy Wolf, RP Guillermo Mota, and IF Mark Loretta.
  

Training Camp:

• Battle for No. 5 pitching spot - RHP Claudio Vargas is the projected starter right now, but Jason Schmidt, who has missed basically the last two seasons, could take over that spot.
• Manny Ramirez (.500 avg) and Russell Martin (.361 avg.) are ready to go.
• OF Matt Kemp got new contact lenses and says he is seeing the ball like never before, his power numbers have been good so far.
  

Keys to Success: Their starting pitching is going to make or break them. Chad Billingsley will be a No. 1 starter for the first time in his young career, followed by Hideki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw (who has electric stuff but is still young), veteran Randy Wolf, and Claudio Vargas/Jason Schmidt. They are going to need Kershaw to avoid having too much growing pains. The bullpen should remain solid, anchored by dominant closer Jonathan Broxton. Their offense should be very potent with a healthy Rafael Furcal leading off, Manny being Manny at no. 3, and Russell Martin batting cleanup.

Projections: The NL West should be a two-team race. The starting pitching isn't as good as the Diamondbacks rotation. The Dodgers should win around 85 games, but it barely wont be enough. They take second place in a tight pennant race.

Arizona Diamondbacks
2008 Record: 82-80 (2nd NL West)
2008 Payroll: $66.2 million (23rd highest)

Last Season: The Diamondbacks started the season off as one of the hottest teams in the Major Leagues, going 20-8 over the first month or so. The team led the division for the majority of the season, but they showed their youth and sputtered in the second half. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren couldn't keep dominating and starting position players OF Eric Byrnes, 2B Orlando Hudson, OF Justin Upton, and 1B Chad Tracy all missed significant time to injury. They led the division for basically the whole season until September, when the red-hot Dodgers surpassed them and won the pennant, making it another year in which they came close to the playoffs and fell short.

Key Moves: The Diamondbacks saw a lot more marquee guys go than stay.

• Perhaps their biggest acquisition was innings-eater RHP Jeff Garland to a 1-year deal, bolstering their core of starting pitchers.
  
• Let 1B/OF Adam Dunn, 2B Orlando Hudson, LHP Randy Johnson, and closer Brandon Lyon go in free-agency. Dunn's power will be missed and even though he strikes out frequently, he is one of the few that can consistently belt homers in the vast ballparks of the NL West. Orlando Hudson was plagued by injuries but is a solid all-around player who the D-Backs might regret letting go. Randy Johnson held up nicely considering his age, but Arizona was not gonna pay him the type of money he got from the Giants. Brandon Lyon was serviceable, but lost his job as closer at the end of the season, making him expendable.
  
• Signed 2B Felipe Lopez to a one-year deal to replace the departure of Orlando Hudson, they are hoping that he will be a solid leadoff batter

Training Camp:

• Battle for OF - Now that Chad Tracy is finally healthy, he will take over first base and Conor Jackson will move back to the outfield, leaving a logjam in the position. They have four legitimate outfielders in Eric Byrnes, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young. Veteran Eric Byrnes is coming off of two torn hamstrings, one of which tore completely off the bone and is currently 4th on the depth chart. However, Both Conor Jackson and Justin Upton are struggling mightily this spring and there is word that Jackson might platoon at outfield and first base.
• Bullpen - Chad Qualls appears to have won the job as closer. Tony Pena and John Rauch are both battling for setup, with Pena currently the lead candidate.
• Eric Byrnes, Chris Snyder, Chris Young, and Chad Tracy are all batting. 339 or higher this spring and look to be ready for the season.

Keys to Success: The Diamondbacks have the best starting rotation in the NL West. Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Doug Davis, and John Garland will all win games for the team. The Diamondbacks' biggest issue over the last few years has been consistency. They are young and have had bad slumps as a team in recent seasons. They will need their young rising stars to continue to improve and produce consistently throughout the year. That being said, everyone saw how hot they can get, and if they play to their potential, they will make noise in the NL West.

Projections: Pitching reigns supreme in the NL West, and the D-Backs deep rotation will keep them competitive game-to-game. As long as everyone stays healthy, they should be able to edge out the Dodgers for first place in the NL West.

San Francisco Giants
2008 Record: 72-90 (4th place NL West)
2008 Salary: $76.9 million (17th highest)

Last Season: The Giants spent the last season as another year to put Barry Bonds behind them and look towards the future. The highlight of their season was the emergence of ace Tim Lincecum, who basically dominated every category among NL pitchers and won the Cy Young Award. Matt Cain pitched better than his record suggests, and they found their closer of the future, Brian Wilson, who had 41 saves and was named an All-Star. Despite their talented young pitching, they underwhelmed on the other side of the ball and staked claim to the most anemic offense in the league. Aaron Rowand did not perform up to the $60 million dollar contract he was given and the position players - comprised of mostly veterans in the twilight of their careers - were not able to produce runs. They were at least able to get a chance to take a good look at their prospects and see how they performed at the Major League level.

Key Moves: The Giants were fairly active in the free agent market this offseason, and were rumored at one point to be chasing Manny Ramirez.

• Signing LHP Randy Johnson to a 1 year, $8 million dollar deal will give them a serviceable starter. They overpaid, but he will be a nice veteran presence and can mentor the Giants' promising young pitching staff.
  
• They let 42-year old SS Omar Visquel go and hand 33-year old Edgar Renteria a 2 year, $18.5 million deal. He had a terrible season with the TIgers last year but has been productive in the National League in the past.

Training Camp: Camp started as an open competition at several positions, giving young players chances to win starting jobs.

• Battle for 1B - 25-year old Travis Ishikawa has been solid this spring and has beat out veteran Rich Aurilia for the starting position. His power is really starting to come around early this year.
  
• Battle for 2B - Emmanuel Burriss beat out Kevin Frandsen for the starting spot. He has a lot of speed and hopes are that he can develop into a good leadoff hitter.
• Battle for 3B - Pablo Sandoval, who has shown he can play solid defense at all infield positions as well as catcher, will start at 3rd base on opening day. He played beyond his age (22 years old) and impressed in his short time at the Majors last year by showing he can hit for average.

Keys to Success: The Giants starting pitching should be solid and can win plenty of games. Lincecum, Randy Johnson, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, and top pitching prospect Jonathan Sanchez make up the rotation. This is a big year for Barry Zito to show he can return to form and live up to his massive contract. There are also doubts about the bullpen, which was not good last year. The offense is going to have be on the better end of what is likely to be a lot of one-run games this year. The Giants are basically still in full-on rebuilding mode and there will be a lot of young hitters who are bound to have growing pains as the season goes on.

Projections: Their pitching should win them enough games to keep them out of the NL West basement. There are a lot of people out there who think they will surprise. They do just that, and finish 3rd in their division.

Colorado Rockies
2008 Record: 74-88 (3rd NL West)
2008 Payroll: $68.6 million (20th highest)

Last Season: The Rockies started the 2008 season coming off of a magical Cinderella run that took them to their first World Series appearance in franchise history. Unfortunately, the Red Sox swept them but the Rockies had shown their potential. The team would not be able to reproduce that magic in 2008. The same young players that contributed to their 2007 success all took steps backward, especially Troy Tulowitzki (who was being pegged as a future perennial All-Star). To be fair, Tulowitzki did go to the DL twice. Slugger Todd Helton and ace Jeff Francis played through pain all year, and the bullpen did not perform well. The disappointment of 2008 forced management to make some tough personnel decisions.

Key Moves: The Rockies saw the departure of several starting players in the offseason.

• Slugger and team leader Matt Holiday was traded to Oakland for two prospects, starting pitcher Greg Smith, CF Carlos Gonzalez and closer Huston Street. Holliday won the NL batting title in 2007 and has averaged .319 / 25hr / 97rbi over his 5 years in the majors, a model of consistency. His production will be missed and it remains to be seen how his numbers will be affected moving away from Coors Field. Huston Street is the only player that can have an impact this year and Smith and Gonzalez will start the season in Triple-A.
• Closer Brian Fuentes left in free agency to sign with the Angels. He has been solid the last 4 years or so, the Rockies are going to let pitchers compete for this years closer role.
• Traded with the Cubs for starting pitcher Jason Marquis, who will be a regular in the rotation.

Training Camp:

• 1B Todd Helton is mashing this spring (.515 avg.), and looks to be on his way to full recovery from offseason back surgery.
• Battle for closer: Manny Corpas and Huston Street are competing for the job, with Corpas looking like the front-runner.
• Battle for LF: With Ryan Spilborghs taking over Matt Holliday's spot in CF. There has been open competition for LF all spring. Veteran Scott Podsednik was reassigned to Triple-A, so Seth Smith has a lock on the position.
• Last year's No. 1 starter, Jeff Francis, will miss the season after shoulder surgery. So everyone gets bumped up and Jorge De La Rosa slides into the No. 5 spot. Aaron Cook will be the opening day starter, and has pitched well this spring (2.55 ERA). Pitcher Jason Marquis, acquired in the offseason from the Cubs, has been getting lit up and has an ERA in double-digits.

Keys to Success: This could be a tumultuous year for the Rockies if they do not play well. Manager Clint Hurdle's contract was not extended in the offseason and he will be on the hot seat if the team starts to fade early. Their bullpen is going to have to step it up, as they have struggled during Spring Training and either Corpas or Street are going to have to emerge as clear-cut closers. SS Troy Tulowitzki needs to have a bounce-back year. Spilborghs, Tulowitzki, Helton, Atkins, and Hawpe make for a solid 1-5 that will produce and they are going to have to give the pitchers breathing room in order to win games.

Projections: The team will start the season with a big disadvantage as 11 of its first 14 games are on the road. How they deal with that could set the tone for the first half of the season. If Hurdle gets fired, then there is no telling if the team will start to go into full-on rebuilding mode, but they do have two former managers on the coaching staff to take Hurdle's spot. This Rockies team has a ceiling at 80 wins or so if the pitching performs above expectations. But they will likely struggle, keeping them around 70 wins and near the bottom of the NL West along with Padres. They finish 4th.